I believe a good trading system should be considered for inclusion in one’s portfolio in order to potentially enjoy superior returns. Finding a good trading system, however, can be a very difficult process. So it becomes necessary to have a way of distinguishing good systems from the rest. Fortunately, there is a way to do this by using a demanding set of criteria that I believe must be met in order for you to consider using the system.
Futures trading is not appropriate for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading futures. Losses can and will occur. No system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses. No representation or implication is being made that using the Instant Profits methodology or system will generate profits or ensure freedom from losses.
The purpose of this report is to define the criteria that I believe will enable you to identify the good systems out there from all the rest.
Listed below are the key elements of the criteria set you should use in evaluating a trading system. A good trading system will meet the requirements of each key element whereas many systems will only meet some requirements. For example, a trading system may be advertised as having 80% winning trades which sounds pretty good. However, that same system’s losing trades may be 5 times higher than the average winning trade, making the system a net loser.
Mechanical System
The trading system must be 100% mechanical without any human input or overrides. It must also not be tweaked or adjusted as time goes on to fit current data. Also, the system algorithms or rules must not be curve-fitting or tailored to short term, non-repetitive patterns of past data that eliminate otherwise losing trades. A good way to screen for curve-fitting is to look for consistently good results over a minimum of 5 years of past data that meet all of the other criteria outlined in this report as well.
Liquid Markets
The trading system should be aimed at liquid markets where sufficient daily volume exists to easily and consistently execute orders as intended by the system with a minimum of slippage. For example, the S&P 500 Index Futures Market is highly liquid, whereas the Orange Juice Futures Market is far less liquid.
Market Direction Independence
A good trading system will not be dependent on a bull market for its success. It should have the potential to generate successful trading performance in all market conditions; bull, bear, and sideways trading range.
Hypothetical Performance Results
The primary way of evaluating a trading system is based on its historical back tested performance (“hypothetical performance”). But the performance record must include real world trading commission and slippage assumptions. Commission and slippage can cause an otherwise winning performance to actually be a net loser. Beware of any futures trading system performance data where commission and slippage assumptions are not included or are understated.
Maximum Drawdown
An inherent characteristic of Investing in general and in trading systems in particular is the maximum drawdown in account value from the most recent peak. This is a very important factor in assessing the risk associated with any system. There are two aspects to consider; the dollar amount of the drawdown as a percentage of the total account value (should not exceed the average annual return) and the duration of the drawdown until a new peak level in equity is realized (should not exceed 6 months). Some trading systems hype great profits over the past several years, but don’t disclose drawdowns that sometimes exceed the initial capital invested and last for a year or more. Before selecting a trading system, you must be able to quantify the drawdown risk and find it suitable, both financially and emotionally.
Beginning Account Size
The maximum past drawdown (over a minimum five year period) plus the margin required for one contract is the absolute minimum account size required to trade a system. And to be conservative, it is prudent to add a buffer since the maximum drawdown for any trading system is always in the future.
Annual Returns
Annual returns are measured as net profit after commissions and slippage, divided by the beginning account size which gives you annual percent return on beginning account size. Two things are important here. First, the average annual net profit should be a minimum of twice the maximum drawdown over a period of at least 5 years. Second, ideally there should be no losing years.
Trade Profile
There are two aspects important here. First, the percent of profitable trades should be in the 40-60% range and the ratio of average win to average loss should be in the 1.3 – 2.0 range. Second, the average trade net profit (total net profits divided by the total number of all trades) should be at a minimum 3 times greater than real world per trade slippage and commission assumptions. Beware of systems claiming to deliver greater than 60% winners. Such systems usually exhibit a very poor average win to average loss ratio where a few losing trades can easily wipe out profits from several winning trades.
You Now Have the Tools
By following the guidelines in this report, I believe you are now in a position to distinguish the difference between good systems that have the potential to deliver superior returns and the rest. Remember, a trading system must meet all of the criteria elements outlined here to qualify as a system that you would consider trading for your own account.
The Next Move Is Yours
Trading systems are not for everyone. In particular, Futures Trading involves significant risk and should only be considered by those who have determined that futures trading is appropriate for them with regard to their financial situation. However, the appropriate use of a good automated trading system could mean the difference between mediocre and superior returns. I believe you now have the tools necessary to properly evaluate a trading system.
Martin Chandra
http://www.articlesbase.com/non-fiction-articles/choosing-a-trading-system-that-actually-works-90245.html
How do I choose a forex trading system?
I am new to the forex market and am looking for a good trading system that actually works. Can someone point me in the right direction please?
Actually nobody can provide you with perfect for you trading system because everyone of us are different people we have different viewpoints, different characters and different trading ballances, therefore system which is very profitable for others may not suit to you.
Only you can and must create your own trading system.
Some books will help you. Of course you should have study others’ trading systems too. But finally you should create it yourself.
If you have any question please don’t hesitate and apply to my via e-mail or pm.
Good luck!
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Forex trader
Check this forum, there’s lot of info.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php
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Forex has a great system to trade currencies on, go to our website to signup for a free demo. http://www.phantomtrading.com
The demo is good for 30 days, I think you will like it.
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There are a couple of other variables that determine if a Forex trading system will work or not. They are Fear and Greed.
It is my experence that the most important element in successfully trading in the Forex marketplace is to get to know your own inner emotions. You can best accomplish this through trading demo accounts and not using any of your own money until you understand your own tolerance to risk and experience the personal emotions involved when the market turns against you. Do you stay with your plan or do you bail out early because of fear? Do you stay with your plan or do you take profits too early because of greed?
I strongly suggest to all my clients to take advantage of the free demo accounts provided by most Forex brokers. Test out different tactics. Experience trend trading, experiment with seeing how news releases impact your demo account balances, test out a conservative hedging strategy and see how Forex can be used as a part of a long term investment strategy.
You can have fun and learn alot by trading with demo accounts. You will know when it is time for you to put a few dollars on the line. But take your time. The Forex market is not going anywhere it will be waiting for you when you are ready.
I have a couple of artices that you may find interesting. Just drop me an email.
Paul
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full time Forex investor & mentor
Universty of Hard Knocks
I have heard pretty good testimonies for Forex Mentor. It uses what Peter Bain calls a Pivot point system that uses "commercial support and resistance" lines plus a combination of candle sticks, trendlines, MACD, stochastics. Sounds like the basic stuffs, but the "cooking" the ingredient is the magic. Anyway you can check it out for yourself here @ http://www.geocities.com/lcming/ForexForex
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Forex SIte
Forex market or Foreign Currency Exchange market is one of the biggest trading market in the world with over USD 1.3 Trillion traded in a day. It is drawing attention ever since it is open to Online trading. Forex trading can be very profitable if you take your time to do a proper research, understanding various options and choose a system that works for you. The most used Forex trading system may not be the most suitable for your needs.
There are many different kinds of Forex Trading Systems and you need to know a few facts as mentioned below, before choosing and funding a system.
1. Testimonials: Is there anyone out there who is trying to sell a system and show you testimonials from the people who actually didn’t like the system? Highly unlikely. You should do proper research before indulging into a system that is completely new to you.
2. Impression: Do not be over impressed from high percentage of winning forex trades because a 90-95% winning trades with with average value $10 gets you $900. If you have 10% losing trade and unfortunately average losing trade is $200, then your account is reduced by $2000. This is an explanation that people often tend to ignore while doing Forex Trading or any trading in general.
3. Profit: Do you want to work with a Forex Trading system that breaks even? Why? If you keep the money in your home, you will still break even, then why take all the hassles of setting up an Forex Trading account and do all the work. Really speaking, you should always do some research on how profitable a particular trading system is?
4. Drawdown: The maximum drawdown of trading system is defined as the greatest peak-to-valley drawdown in a trading system’s equity. Maximum drawdown gives us a measure of the survivability of the trading system.
5. Time to profit: The actual time it takes to achieve the results with a particular trading system. You should plan to have a long and profitable relationship with your trading system.
Try to use a trading system that let you open a Demo account so that you can practice and learn about Forex Trading without risking any money.
I have tried many of these systems in my quest to simplify my trading experience. I personally have found FreedomRocks to be the system that has worked for me. I have found no bad information on this system from anybody that has actually used it. I have found many skeptics and bashers but nothing from those that have actually tried at least the free trial they offer.
Below are a couple of links that may that I have found in my travels around the web:
http://www.yourforexinvestor.com
http://www.babypips.com
To your success,
Brandon Wells
bjwells@yourforexinvestor.com
877-773-5345
References :
If you want a safe and easy trading system, I would suggest looking at http://www.myfxsecrets.com. The system offered there is very easy to use and pretty inexpensive. I’ve been using it for a few months and have a gained a steady return. It’s worth taking a look.
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